AFC win-total projections Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs own West | Entradas de portal | Foro

AFC win-total projections: Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs own West Published: Sep 05, 2018 at 01:49 AM https://www.chcubsshop.com/chicago-cubs/willson-contreras-jersey NFL Network Analytics Expert I love win totals, and these are the best I've got. In order to create season-long win totals, I take data from the past 10 NFL campaigns and use it to forecast this year's outcomes. I make a model that takes into account trends, personnel and situations that were proven to lead to wins (or lo ses) in the past. Then I "play out the season" 320,000 times. Yes, it's kind of like "Madden" simulations. Yes, it adapts each year to account for the game's evolution. And yes, I am aware no team is winning 8.2 games … … but the reason our game is the best is the same reason we need fractions: parity. There are only 256 total regular-season games and there be more 8-8 results. Look at the NFC East, where a team hasn't won the division in consecutive years since 2004! So, take it for what it's worth: relative value. Then look to see how big the ceiling-to-floor range is -- if it's big, that means a team is projected for more close games. One cool side note: The whole NFC forecasts to be incredibly competitive this year, with 14 teams having the same combined chances of making the playoffs as the top seven in the AFC. You'll find win totals for every AFC team below. Baltimore Ravens: 8.3 wins Ceiling: 8.9Floor: 7.3 While most of the preseason chatter in Baltimore has revolved around the quarterback room, I'm struck by the potential impact of two new . According to my model, and will help the make a 13-spot jump from last season's No. 29 ranking in pa sing offense. Buffalo Bills: 5.7 wins Ceiling: 6.5Floor: 5.4 The have averaged the fewest pa sing yards per game (183.2) over the past two seasons. Not surprisingly, Buffalo's O-line projects to rank in the bottom third of the league as a unit in throwing situations. Meanwhile, the have averaged the rushing yards (145.2) in the past two years, largely because is as elusive a back as you'll find. And given the continued uncertainty at quarterback, it's a safe a sumption Buffalo will be quite ground-based again in 2018. Cincinnati Bengals: 6.8 wins Ceiling: 7.4Floor: 5.2 The run game projects to greatly impact the win total. and Gio Bernard had a rough preseason. If that's just a temporary August problem, this team could surprise. Cleveland Browns: 6.0 wins Ceiling: 6.5Floor: 5.5 has the third-best TD-to-INT ratio since 2015 ( and are the only two who top him), and has the potential to be a high-accuracy pa ser on any route. Consequently, my model projects far fewer turnovers than in 2017 -- when Cleveland posted league worsts with 28 INTs and 41 https://www.chcubsshop.com/chicago-cubs/anthony-rizzo-jersey total giveaways -- and this improved ball security fuels 2.5 wins on its own in my calculations. Denver Broncos: 8.4 wins Ceiling: 9.4Floor: 7.3 I am not overweighting preseason information, but in the throws I have been able to track, has gotten the ball within a three-foot halo of his receivers at a rate that is almost 30 percent higher than any of the ' QBs in the past two seasons. This should help addre s Denver's turnover woes from 2017, when the ranked second-to-last with 34 giveaways. Also, has shown the potential to be a high-YAC back, breaking more tackles than over the last month. (Again, I know it was the preseason, but this is something to monitor.) Houston Texans: 9.4 wins (projected wild card) Ceiling: 9.7Floor: 8.4 The return of means we can expect almost 35 points per game, like Houston managed in the QB's six starts before injury last season … right? Unlikely. But the stability and reliability that is a sociated with the return of and -- and Romeo Crennel as defensive play-caller -- mean the ' offense won't need to score as many points. Instead, Houston can be strategic with Watson -- in both pa sing and rushing situations -- to protect his health and minimize turnover potential. The ' fourth-place schedule also keeps their floor high. Indianapolis Colts: 5.3 wins Ceiling: 5.6Floor: 4.5 It kind of shocked me that the return of didn't drive this projection higher, especially given that Indy added a premium protector in No. 6 overall pick . The project to be most able to move the ball downfield via quick-tempo offensive play calling, especially with their lack of depth at the skill positions (running back, in particular). This pushes 's projections up. Jacksonville Jaguars: 10.44 wins (projected AFC South champions) Ceiling: 11.9Floor: 8.8 Maybe the coolest "wins compared to an average" figure in my model: The Jags' defense is worth 6 https://www.chcubsshop.com/chicago-cubs/jon-lester-jersey .8 wins. That's not just the most for any defense, but also more than any quarterback. Look for second-year RB to break out (adding greater efficiency in addition to maintaining high volume) with the addition of All-Pro guard . Kansas City Chiefs: 10.39 wins (projected AFC West champions) Ceiling: 12.2Floor: 7.9 The AFC's biggest boom-or-bust team in my model projects to win the West. The are handing the keys (and https://www.chcubsshop.com/chicago-cubs/ron-santo-jersey potentially the most well-rounded supporting cast in the NFL) to . To make a big leap, the must fix the 29th-ranked pa s defense from last season, and they'll have to do it without star CB . The good news is that three-time All-Pro safety is on his way back from an injury that basically cost him the entire 2017 campaign. Furthermore, the acquisition of cornerback in the trade helps mitigate the lo s of Peters. If inside linebackers and can reduce opponents' ability to rush against the , K.C. could be set up for a deep playoff run. Los Angeles Chargers: 9.5 wins (projected wild card) Ceiling: 10.2Floor: 8.6 The interior of the ' O-line has already shown signs of improvement. Yes, for the umpteenth time, I know preseason football can only tell you so much, but the starting offensive line's push-back measurements were considerably better than last year. That kind of improvement is directly tied to better offensive efficiency. Especially good news for in the run game. Miami Dolphins: 6.7 wins Ceiling: 7.9Floor: 5.3 Last season, the ' offense posted the NFL's worst conversion rate on third down (31.7 percent). This will need to change for the Fins to have a shot at the playoffs -- and it will depend on the health and production of . New England Patriots: 11.3 wins (projected AFC East champions) Ceiling: 12.4Floor: 9.7 Last season, the Pats' D ranked 29th in yards allowed and 17th in pre sures, but an impre sive fifth in touchdowns allowed. Opposing offenses were on the field for a long time, but settled for field goals or no points. This year, expect a healthy uptick in defensive pre sures; with in a contract year and coming aboard in free agency, I forecast New England jumping into the top 10 in this area. This will help CB keep improving on his end-of-season form. And the return of linebacker is the cherry on top. All of this will combine to place the Pats in the top half of the league in total defense. New York Jets: 6.2 wins Ceiling: 6.9Floor: 5.2 With rookie set to start from Week 1 and an O-line that forecasts to be in the bottom five in terms of pre sures allowed, turnovers could come in bunches. Oakland Raiders: 5.71 wins Ceiling: 6.2Floor: 4.3 In my model, the departed was worth 1.1 wins, given his elite edge-rushing ability. One positive note: 's projections indicate a big bounce-back season, due to a more diverse playbook under head coach Jon Gruden. Pittsburgh Steelers: 10.9 wins (projected AFC North champions) Ceiling: 11.9Floor: 8.9 The performance of Pittsburgh's defense will be the biggest influence on the team's win total. One area to monitor: How the will fare without LB . They struggled to replace him last season and are likely to change their scheme at least a bit to compensate. Tenne see Titans: 7.2 wins Ceiling: 7.9Floor: 6.3 Mike Vrabel is now in control, and the made a good number of offseason moves that seem to reflect the first-time head coach's Patriot/ lineage. One major beneficiary of this who was already in Nashville? Second-year wideout https://www.chcubsshop.com/chicago-cubs/fergie-jenkins-jersey , who projects to take a big step forward this season. This article has been reproduced in a new format and may be mi sing content or contain faulty links. Please use the Contact Us link in our site footer to report an i sue.